Welcome to the Saturday edition of Future Telescope! Going forward, Future Telescope will hit your inbox every Saturday instead of every Wednesday. Let’s go!
This Ajna(Be) song is nice to play while reading today’s post:
The Spark
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again - Satya Nadella always gets me thinking.
In a fascinating interview with Steven Levy at Wired, he dives deep into his bets into AI and talks candidly about how he sees this new wave of technology play out. What got me thinking the most was his reference to an iconic 1945 article by Vannevar Bush, who, among many things, led all of the military R&D in America during WW2. Yeah, he was super impressive.
In this 1945 article, Bush describes the concept of “memex”, a hypothetical electromechanical device for memory. This concept went on to inspire generations of scientists and led to the creation of the modern computer and the internet. In 1959, he followed up with the concept of Memex II, and in its manuscript he wrote the words “Professional societies will no longer print papers…”. The dude was a visionary and his ideas have legitimately changed the world.
Reading this article prompted me to think of the threads that have connected the development of mankind along with the development of modern technology starting with the computer, and continuing with machine learning generative AI today. This article is a condensation of these thoughts.
The 4C’s
1. Computation
Let's rewind to the 1940s. Back then, a computer was a room-sized monster that could do basic arithmetic. These machines were the cutting edge of the computational world, toiling away to solve equations that would leave our brains fried.
Fast forward to the internet age, and we had personal computers churning out data at breakneck speed.
Then came smartphones, mini computers that we carry in our pockets, crunching numbers and data faster than you can say "OK Google, what's the square root of pi?"
And now, in the AI era. Nvidia and AMD are in a mad rush to produce AI chips that make your smartphone look like a toddler's toy. We're talking about power that was the stuff of science fiction just a few decades ago. This level of computational performance is literally pushing the limits of physics by pushing transistors to sizes smaller than an atom. But hey, companies like ASML and TSMC have long been prepared for this future and you can expect some ground-breaking innovations in manufacturing technology from their end to deliver these futuristic chips with transistors smaller than an atom. Yes, the future is more exciting than our imagination!
2. Creativity
Picture this: It's 1984, and MacPaint is the pinnacle of digital creativity.
Fast forward to the 90s and 2000s, and we have Photoshop, Illustrator, and a myriad of tools that let us paint our dreams onto a digital canvas.
Enter smartphones, and by the 2010s we’re taking photos on a whim and we have Instagram and Snapchat filters unlocking powerful new ways of expression. In fact, in the 1945 essay, Vannevar Bush speculates about “dry photography” - remember how photography was a messy business involving fluids and films?
And now in the 2020s, AI is taking creativity to a whole new level. AI-powered tools like ChatGPT, Midjourney, and Dall-E are opening the floodgates of creative expression.
And with RunwayML's Gen2 creating AI-generated videos, we're just scratching the surface of what's possible. If creativity were a canvas, technology is the brush that's constantly evolving, creating masterpieces that were previously unimaginable.
3. Convenience
Remember when you couldn’t order stuff online? Remember when you had to manually dial numbers on your landline phone? That was life’s reality before computers, the internet, and the smartphone.
And now? - Want to call a cab?
There's an app for that.
Want to order food?
There's an app for that too.
And all of these conveniences have already been powered by machine learning AI long before you may have even heard about it. Uber has long used machine learning to optimize the routes its drivers take. The charging speed of your smartphone is determined by machine learning algorithms to ensure that your battery doesn’t explode.
And then there are the digital butlers. Think assistants like Google Assistant or Siri, think the gallery app on your phone that allows you to search for "sunset" and see photos you have clicked of sunsets, think about the weather alerts that remind you to take your umbrella because rain is forecasted, all of these are innovations powered by machine learning AI. Not getting caught in unplanned rain? That’s the kind of convenience AI has brought us.
4. Communication
When I was a kid, long distance communication used to be all about snail mail and expensive STD/ISD calls.
Enter the computer and the internet, and I got email and instant messaging.
With smartphones, I got Whatsapp.
Now, with AI, my communication has become smarter and more efficient. Spam filters in email, algorithmic feeds on social media (this article’s 9 years old btw), and complex telecommunication networks are all powered by machine learning AI.
Communication has always been one of the first human needs to get impacted by technology. Current advancements in machine learning AI are just propelling it to the next level. And with advanced algorithms improving technology, we now live in a world where this is a reality:
Conclusion
The 4C’s are a good framework to see how new technologies change our world. With the latest advancements in machine learning and generative AI, there will be so much more impact on how humanity computes, creates, communicates and with what level of convenience humans live their lives. With AI systems becoming capable of advanced intelligence, they do present threats that must be dealt with, but they also present opportunities to solve some of the most complex problems we have dealt with as humans.
I want to be a part of the solutions. I want to be a part of the beautiful world that lies right there in the future, just beyond our current grasp. How about you?
That’s it for the nineteenth draft, see you next week!
Very good explanation